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Posted By Robert Bell,
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
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Since Sputnik and Mercury, gaining
access to space has been a high-risk, high-reward game with a very high price
tag. The advances since then have been
enormous, but the fundamental rules of that game have changed very little.
We are now seeing a
blossoming of new thinking and new doing.
Farthest advanced is SpaceX, with its Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 medium-class
launchers and launch manifest of nearly 50 government and commercial missions
worth US$4 billion. SpaceX has a highly
ambitious goal: putting payload into GEO insertion orbit for one-tenth of the current
cost. The company is working toward a
2013 demonstration flight of Falcon Heavy, for which it will strap together 3
Falcon 9 first-stage cores to create a heavy-lift vehicle.
Last year, Richard Branson
announced that Virgin Galactic would begin lofting small satellites in 2016
aboard LauncherOne, which rides into the upper atmosphere aboard a Burt
Rutan-designed plane before rocketing higher.
It would have been bigger news if
Orbital Sciences had not been doing the same thing with its Pegasus booster
since 1990.
Speaking of Orbital, it is
now in negotiations with Stratolaunch over development of a massive new air-launched
rocket, according to SpaceNews. Stratolaunch announced in 2011 that it would
develop a new launch system consisting of a twin-fuselage mothership and rocket,
for which SpaceX was the original contractor.
We will ignore space
elevators and other Larry Lightbulb concepts that have yet to see
daylight. Even without them, the
business of launch seems destined for major change over coming decades. The question is what shape the new industry
will take.
I read a lot of history,
which teaches three reassuring lessons.
First, even radical change tends to happen slowly, because of natural
human resistance to it. Second, the
surest way to be wrong about the future is to extrapolate in a straight line
from today’s trends. And third, things have always and forever been the same
horrible mess they are now, with the occasional exception to brighten our lives.
If I had to guess, I would
predict that the launch business will evolve into an increasingly tiered model,
in which customers will be able to make more trade-offs involving vehicle,
schedule and cost to meet their business plans.
Heavy-lift vehicles with strong track records will be able to command
premium prices, while customers with different needs will have a broader range
of other choices. This has been the
technology evolution story of the past few decades: not either-or but both-and. And it is good news for the established
players from Arianespace to ILS, who will have time to evolve their businesses in response to
market demand.
However things evolve, price
pressure will rise, and launch companies charging higher prices will find ways
to bring the price-per-kilogram down in response. The customer will win, and the overall
satellite business will enjoy the volume growth that lower costs promote. It’s going to be a wild ride but to a
desirable destination. For more on Launch Service challenges, read the interview in this month's Orbiter with Kjell Karlsen, President of Sea Launch AG.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Thursday, March 07, 2013
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Each year’s SATELLITE show
contains a moment of major importance to me. It takes place in one of the meeting rooms at
the Convention Center on Wednesday morning.
That’s the morning after the Gala, which has been lighting up opening
night at this show for 26 years. The
morning after the night of meeting-and-greeting, drinking-and-eating, more
drinking-and-eating and meeting-and-greeting until way too late.
Especially with our new After-Party this year.
The next morning, at 7:30
sharp, SSPI holds its Chapter Leaders breakfast. We bring together leaders of our chapters
from around the world and members of our international Board. I have to tell you, it is one rugged
morning. Waking up is hard, shuffling to
the Convention Center is hard, and doing more meeting-and-greeting is hard.
But somewhere after the eggs,
bacon and first cup of coffee, magic happens.
It happens every year. We hear
from volunteer leaders of chapters in New York, Washington, Sao Paulo, Atlanta,
London, Los Angeles, The Hague, Lagos and Tokyo. We hear from one of the educational groups
that SSPI partners with. (This year, it
is the Challenger Centers for Space Science Education, which excites
middle-school students about science and math with simulated space
missions.) The chapter leaders talk
about what worked and what didn’t at the local level in the past year.
And we get inspired. Members of the Board come to the breakfast bleary-eyed
and exit smiling and walking tall. Chapter
leaders leave knowing that they are not alone in their cities and regions but
are part of something bigger that labors to expand our industry and attract the
best and brightest to work in it.
Inspiration is something you can’t post to the P&L or boast about to
the shareholders. But it is one of the
things we do at SSPI, and it is by no means the least valuable.
See you at SATELLITE.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
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Hindsight, my father used to
say, is 20/20. The turning point is always clear after we have passed it. The decisive break with the past, which fuels
a new wave of innovation, is only obvious long after the wave has broken.
A month ago, we began asking
SSPI members – online, by email, by phone and in conversation – which
developments of the past few years signal a breakthrough, with the potential to
transform our industry in the next decade.
Bandwidth, as you might
imagine, is high on the list. "With
satellite services today, you have to work hard to deliver what you promise
with limited bandwidth. Now imagine that
you have lots and lots of bandwidth to make customers happy. You are no longer trying to squeeze high performance
out of a small amount of resource, and you are suddenly in a whole new world.” That, in a nutshell, is the promise of
high-throughput technologies from Ka-band GEO to 03B MEO and Intelsat’s
EPIC. Not to mention the leading-edge
modems that are driving higher throughput in conventional bands. As our colleagues and competitors in the fiber
business can tell us, a plunge in the cost per bit transmitted can have almost
unimaginable consequences.
Getting satellites to GEO is
also changing. "All-electric propulsion
is going to extend the life of satellites and let us put smaller, cheaper
spacecraft into orbit that deliver the same punch as today’s bigger birds,”
said one senior executive. He was
talking about new satellite designs that Boeing and Space Systems/Loral are
building for customers, in which electric thrusters will not only do
station-keeping but also initial orbit-raising maneuvers, with 10 times the
efficiency of chemical thrusters.
Combine that with lower-cost launch services – if SpaceX continues its
successful run – and the fundamental economics of the business could shift
in seismic ways.
A more subtle but compelling
breakthrough is taking place in the minds of customers. Back when the cancellation of the US TSAT
program led then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to dismiss the "Battlestar
Gallactica” approach to military satellites, hosted payloads seemed a new and
strange thing in government circles. But
as a US Army colonel now says, "why would we concentrate the risks of a program
in 2 or 3 massive, expensive satellites that are also massive targets? How about spreading out our assets as
payloads in 50 or more orbital slots?
Isn’t that ultimately more robust and survivable?”
In a time of military
downsizing, the hosted payload concept is really taking off. A story in Satellite Today reports on a startup that is even applying it to
weather satellites. Like military birds,
the world’s weather satellites have always been purpose-built spacecraft lofted
for no other purpose than scanning Earth’s skies. But GeoMetWatch is deploying meteorological
payloads on GEO communications satellites as a cheaper, faster way to meet the
world’s need for weather information. Think of a city of tall buildings compared with
a suburb of single-family homes. They
may occupy the same number of square kilometers but the city makes much more
intensive use of them. With the help of
our customers, we are finding that the limited real estate of the orbital arc
can have much greater capacity than we ever imagined.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
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I live in fear of running out of things. Ask my wife: I’m the guy who leaves a quarter-inch (that’s 6mm to the rest of the world) in the bottom of the bottle I put back in the refrigerator. I’m not aware of being concerned but something about pouring out the last of anything bothers me.
And let’s face it, we run out of stuff. We keep thinking we’re running out of oil or minerals or water – but we do manage to keep finding more, because we get better at looking. When our body’s ability to heal itself gets exhausted, we become old and ill and start shuffling off this mortal coil. But then, we are getting better every decade at putting off that day. Maybe it’s not such a big problem after all. I know of at least one natural resource that will never run out. Innovation. It is a natural product because it is sparked in the human brain and enabled by the courage of the human heart. It is as natural to us, in fact, as breathing. At this year’s Gala, we will celebrate the innovation of an amazing industry. But I am not talking about the past. Sure, we have fifty years of achievements to be proud of, but the industry’s best days lie ahead. We were cool back in the Space Age when no competing technology could hold a candle to us – and we will be just as cool tomorrow after going mano a mano with Google, Twitter and Pinterest. We are at the beginning of a season of breaking through expectations, known limits and established business models. We will see satellites being designed and launched at many times today’s pace, and we will repair and refuel spacecraft in orbit. We will see a wave of entrepreneurship rising up to exploit cheaper access to space. We will witness satellites providing hundreds of gigabits of transmission capacity. We may even be able to stop fighting so hard to keep our spectrum, because our applications will no longer be considered minor niches in a mobile world. Challenging? Certainly. Frightening? You bet – even more than pouring out the last of something into a glass or bowl. But when the wave of innovation starts, it is hard to stop. Breaking through is the way to a brighter tomorrow.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Friday, December 21, 2012
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It has been one remarkable
year.
The satellite industry tends
to be slow to change. That’s a good thing
– when your core business is building, launching and flying a really expensive asset
to an inaccessible place where it has to work reliably for 10-15 years. "Failing fast” may be great in Silicon Valley
but not so desirable in GEO orbit.
Yet the times they are a’changing,
a whole lot faster than they used to.
Just look at the financial deals announced in 2012. DigitalGlobe purchased GeoEye, MacDonald,
Dettwiler and Associates acquired Space Systems/Loral, and Cobham bought Thrane
& Thrane – not to mention Intelsat’s announcement of an initial public
offering.
More profound for the
industry’s future have been breakthroughs in bandwidth. This year saw the full-scale commercial
roll-out of Ka-band in multiple regions, Intelsat’s announcement of its EPIC
high-throughput satellites, and battles among modem manufacturers to jam ever
more megabits through transponders. It
puts one in mind of the automobile before Henry Ford created the modern
assembly line. Cars were for the
"carriage trade,” as it was still called in the waning days of horse-drawn
transport. Then Ford’s manufacturing
genius made the automobile affordable for working people. Volume exploded. The same thing happened with computers,
mobile phones, long-distance rates and just about every other technology that
was very expensive until we found ways to scale it up for mass
consumption.
We’ve done extraordinarily
well with a carriage-trade model of satellite communications. The next chapter of our story, however, will
be about doing even better from applications that deliver the unique value of
satellite at a much lower price per user.
And that is why ‘Breaking Through’ will be the theme of
SSPI’s annual Gala in 2013.
Today’s business is the enemy
of tomorrow’s. Those wise words come
from the late Peter Drucker, probably the most famous management consultant in
history. Clayton Christensen, author of The Innovator’s Dilemma, makes the same
point. Excellence in serving today’s
customer is great – it is how we stay in business today. But it is also a barrier to developing the
service and products that will serve tomorrow’s customers, who will probably want
very different things than today’s end users.
It takes a lot of ingenuity,
determination and courage to break through that barrier – to conceive tomorrow’s
opportunities and seize them without destroying today’s business. And, whether we know it or not, those are the
challenges that our industry has signed up for.
On the evening of March 19, at the Renaissance Hotel
in Washington DC, more than a thousand of us will celebrate our early victories
and embrace the bigger challenges ahead, at Gala 2013. We are grateful to Intelsat for once again
stepping up to be our Gala Theme Sponsor, and I look forward to joining them in
welcoming you there.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Wednesday, November 07, 2012
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In October, SpaceX hit a major milestone by sending its
Dragon reusable module aboard a Falcon 9 rocket to re-supply the International
Space Station. It was the first
cargo-carrying launch under a US$1.6 billion, 12-launch contract with NASA to
keep ISS supplied at a lower cost than other alternatives.
Aside from the fact that Dragon succeeded in its basic
mission of getting stuff to ISS, the launch was notable for two things. One of the nine engines failed, losing
internal pressure and imploding under the external pressure of Max Q. With 8 working engines, however, Falcon was
able to burn longer and achieve its primary mission of orbital rendezvous with
ISS anyway. That’s an impressive
vindication for these first-time rocket scientists.
But SpaceX was not able to achieve its secondary mission,
which was to place Orbcomm’s OG2 prototype satellite into a high elliptical
orbit, where it would be the first of an 18-satellite constellation providing
global machine-to-machine communications.
The satellite was deployed but the engine failure forced SpaceX to make
a choice between reaching ISS safely and putting that satellite where it was
supposed to be. The primary mission came
first, and OG2 was deployed into an orbit that was lower than intended. On October 22, it fell to Earth and was
declared a total loss.
Coming Back Strong
Failure and resilience – those are the two notable things.
Launch companies have failures. The biggest
and most successful of them, Arianespace, experienced failures with each new
generation of launcher it introduced.
CEO Jean-Yves Le Gall was inducted in SSPI’s Hall of Fame in large part
for his role in bringing the company back from a series of early Ariane 5
launch failures, after which it achieved a record 40 successful launches over
the next five years.
It takes more than rocket science to win in this business.
For SpaceX, this is the moment to demonstrate that it can have its technology
break, assess the damage, make good to its customers and come back stronger
than ever.
What It Takes to
Succeed
A similar moment awaits us on November 13. That is the evening, at the Future Leaders Dinner, when SSPI presents its
Promise and Mentor Awards to deserving under 35’s and a veteran mentor of young
talent.
The Awards are usually a playground for the "hard” side of
our business. Since we began presenting
the Awards in 2006, two-third of honorees have been engineers, program managers
or real live rocket scientists. This
year, we honor Nicole Robinson of SES Government Solutions and Karen Yasumura
of Intelsat General for their communications skills in helping the US
government to become a smarter buyer of satellite capacity. Our sole engineer, Brian Mengwasser, made his
mark by contributing in essential ways to SES’s communications with its
customers over the Galaxy 15 crisis. And
our Mentor of the Year may be an operations guy, but Richard Wolf of ABC is
known throughout the business as the ultimate people person, who truly believes
that relationships are the core of our industry.
Failure and resilience.
On November 13, we will be celebrating the lessons that our young
Promise Award winners and our Mentor of the Year can teach us about what it
really takes to succeed.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Friday, September 28, 2012
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This summer, I visited friends on Cape Cod in in the US state of Massachusetts,
and they took me to a place that they thought might interest me. It is the Chatham Marconi Maritime Center,
which honors Guglielmo Marconi, the inventor of radio.
Specifically the Maritime Center preserves the legacy of the
Chatham Radio WCC Operations Building.
It was built and run by Marconi’s company before it was rolled up by a
fledgling venture called the Radio Corporation of America. Yes, that one: RCA.
Before there were Inmarsat, Thuraya and Iridium satellites
in the sky, this was the satellite ground segment that really counted. From 1914, when it was completed, until it
was decommissioned in the 1990s, WCC Chatham provided short-wave links to ships
across all of the seven seas, thanks to the unique properties of short-wave
radio. Communications was by code,
originally Morse and then higher-order coding that could pack more information
into the binary pattern of long-short or off-on transmission. The station operated 24x7 and, in its heyday,
transmitted thousands of messages a week.
It doubtless saved thousands of lives as well.
I spent time with a retired coding technician who showed me
how the last generation of these mechanical systems encoded a message into a
paper tape, which was then run through a reader at high speed. For
this demo, the encoder drove a printer, which produced the "Mariconigram” you
see here.
So, why am I writing about a short-wave radio station to an
audience of satellite professionals?
Three reasons. The first is
sentimental. SSPI’s first big
undertaking was to produce a Celebration of 30 Years of Satellites in Space,
just two years after our founding, to mark the third decade since the 1957 launch
of Sputnik. That celebration began the
tradition of the SSPI Gala Dinner, which we will hold for the 26th
time on the March 19 in Washington DC. And
the keynote speaker at the Celebration was none other than Elettra Marconi,
daughter of the famous inventor.
The second reason is more practical. We may be transmitting to and from space
these days, using digital technologies and advanced coding schemes unimaginable
to the operators at WCC Chatham. But we
are still relying on the fundamental miracle that Marconi wrought: making radio
waves spring from a piece of metal.
Seeing that ingenious mechanical encoder with its electric motor, belts
and precision metal parts flying was to gain a profound glimpse into the depth
and height and pace of innovation.
And lastly, it is because this particular innovator,
Marconi, is well worth remembering – especially in this industry, where we must
continually break through yesterday’s impossibilities to achieve a bright
future.
Born to a wealthy Italian family in 1874, Marconi
was only 21 when he succeeded in sending the first wireless signals over a
distance of a mile and a half. By age 28,
he had patented his invention, founded what became the Marconi Company in the UK and proved that radio signals could cross the Atlantic. Before he died, he had developed the first
microwave technology, created a practical demonstration of radar and won the
Nobel Prize for Physics. He was also a
canny businessman who made great boatloads of money while utterly transforming
the world. He may never have launched a
rocket or flown a satellite, but Marconi was the father of all that we do, and
an example of all that we hope.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Monday, July 30, 2012
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On July 11, British billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson
announced that his company, Virgin Galactic, will develop a rocket to launch
small satellites. It was the sensation
of the Farnborough International Air Show.
"I believe this new vehicle will create a long overdue shake-up of
the entire satellite industry," Branson modestly predicted.
Virgin Galactic said that it already had deposits for four
launches of LauncherOne, as the rocket is imaginatively named, beginning in
2016. LauncherOne will ride up to 50,000
feet (15,000 meters) aboard a carrier aircraft, WhiteKnightTwo, then blast off
from there to low Earth orbit.
Unfortunately, Mr. Branson's forecast of a shake-up is about
20 years too late. Orbital Sciences has been
launching small satellites in exactly the same way aboard its Pegasus rocket since
1990. To date, Pegasus has had 40
launches, 35 of them successful, of Orbital's own satellites as well as dozens
of scientific, government and military spacecraft. The most recent was in June 2012, when
Pegasus placed the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array into orbit for
NASA.
This news story left me shaking my head. Not at Mr. Branson, whose bravado is part of
a successful and truly visionary approach to business. Not at all the journalists who, apparently, ran the
story without doing a 2-minute Google search to see if LauncherOne really was news.
No, I shook my head at us.
The satellite industry. All the
bright, energetic, innovative people who get technology to do near-impossible
things every day. Pegasus – which has a way better name than LauncherOne, by the
way – is one of a hundred examples of mind-bending technical innovation by our
business. But hardly anybody knows: not
business and technology journalists, not investors, not citizens, and not the
policymakers who routinely forget that satellite exists when considering the
network needs of the world. And
certainly not all the IT and telecom decision-makers who are not yet our customers
and could not imagine using satellite, no, not in a million years.
Why don't they know?
Because we don't tell them. We
tell each other, and we tell the customers we already have. But beyond that, a Cone of Silence seems to
cover our industry.
And for a long time, that made good sense. Why bother spreading the word when video is
just about distributing TV signals? When
data is about point-of-sale and only telephone companies handled voice? The customer segment was clear and finite.
But today – as the Internet/social/mobile revolution rolls
onward – video data and voice have become part of everything at almost unimaginable speed. Which gives our industry a shot at being part
of everything as well – if our ambitions are big enough.
Having started with one legendary Brit, I will finish with
words from another. "The fault,
dear Brutus," wrote William Shakespeare 400 years ago, "is not in our
stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings."
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Monday, July 09, 2012
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 At the end of May, I moderated a panel session at the WBU-ISOG Forum in New York City. If you have not attended one of these events, you should. WBU-ISOG brings together senior broadcast distribution executives who understand satellite through and through, and are eager to let our industry know what they need and how they need it. My assigned topic was "New Satellite Designs & Concepts,” and I had an all-star panel consisting of SES’s Richard Lamb, Intelsat’s Ken Takagi and ViaSat’s David Abrahamian. I asked them to focus on what broadcasters need from them today, and how those needs will change over the next three years. As an example, I described touring a satellite assembly plant, where I saw a finished reflector ready for installation. Our tour leader pointed out that it had been molded in a way that was a mirror image of the continent the satellite would serve, so that it would concentrate the beam on land rather than water, and on locations with the greatest concentration of potential customers. And I remember thinking at the time: with an asset that will be in orbit for 10-15 years, how on Earth can you predict where your customers will be? We did not, however, spend much time talking about satellite design. Instead, the panelists went right to the issue of cost, and the factors that impact it. What broadcasters want, they said, is the same highly reliable service at a much lower cost, with greater flexibility that does not force them to make decisions a decade in advance. The things that impact cost and flexibility are launch costs, the use of steerable beams, frequency reuse and higher orders of modulation. And lo and behold, in the past 6 months, what have we had but a series of milestones for alternative launchers, multi-frequency spacecraft, architectures using steerable beams and lots of frequency reuse? Plus a race between modem manufacturers to run ever more megabits through a traditional C or Ku-band 36 MHz transponder. Our industry is going through one of its periodic bursts of innovation, driven by the steady pressure of our customers to give them more for less. It is a challenge that the consumer electronics industry has faced for years – one that has helped it become the global behemoth that it is today. So here’s to the media customer who wants it better, faster and cheaper. Customers like that are the satellite industry’s best friend.
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Posted By Robert Bell,
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
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How
crazy do you have to be to think that, one day, "sunsats” in GEO orbit will transform
sunlight into electricity and beam it as microwaves to our planet's surface,
providing a source of unlimited power that does not contribute to climate
change?
If
"pretty crazy” is your answer, congratulations, you are in the majority.
As for
me, I am happily in the minority. Not
that I am qualified to have an engineering or economic opinion on the viability
of sunsats. But calling a new space
application idea "crazy" is a little like calling a cheetah
"spotted." It may be true but
it is not very informative. For every
space-based application delivering value today, whether as profit or social
good, there were perfectly respectable reasons to call it crazy at some point
in time.
Rockets? Ridiculous.
Space stations in GEO orbit beaming communications to the world? Absurd.
Broadband via satellite? Give me
a break. Affordable, inexhaustible power
from infrastructure in orbit?
Laughable. But then, if you go
down the list of our Industry Innovators since
1993, you will find plenty of ideas that probably gave somebody a good laugh,
until unreasonable people decided to make them happen.
The
English author and playwright George Bernard Shaw put it best: "The
reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in
trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the
unreasonable man."
So it
is my pleasure to introduce you to an unreasonable man. He is Don Flournoy, a professor of
telecommunications at the Scripps College of Communication at Ohio University
in Athens, Ohio, USA. A former member of our Board and founding editor of the Online Journal of Space Communications, Don has made up his mind that space solar
power is an ambitious but feasible development.
And he believes that it presents the satellite industry with one of
those disruptive innovation moments: to develop the technology ourselves or
watch somebody else walk away with the opportunity.
The
unknown Haloid Photographic Company became Xerox because it figured out how to market a
printing technology that used dry toner and heat, first in copiers and then in
laser printers. It should have been
pioneered by the printing technology companies of the day, who worked wonders
with wet inks and printing plates. But they
never took it seriously.
Don
has written a book, Space Solar Power, published this year by Springer Media. He is organizing an international academic
Sunsat Design Competition to help visualize the engineering, financial,
regulatory and competitive challenges. And
he wants the space and satellite industry to help him develop a multi-nation
mission by 2020 that will use the International Space Station to test
atmospheric transmission of millimeter wave frequency windows for beamed power
delivery.
I
would like more of my colleagues – particularly those of an age to be
considered for our Promise Award in November – to read Don's book and discuss
his ideas. Poke holes in them. Challenge the assumptions. Number the obstacles and wring hands over the
investment required. But don't ignore
the topic. Inside the engineering,
behind the business plans and under the operations, our industry has always
been built on a gossamer foundation called inspiration. When enough unreasonable people develop it,
there is little that can get in their way.
Crazy? Sure. But what difference does that make?
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